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    Fanball
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Guesser's Teams
    Red Sox
    Denver Broncos
    Boston Celtics

Let's set the record straight: My strategy was never to "win" any of the monthly prizes.

Ergo, be warned that my strategy will not win you a monthly competition. It is just a description of how I play the game.

My only goal is to get to a billion.

I try to make my buys just AS the reason to make the purchase occurs (HR, TD, Goal scored, etc).


WARNING:Be careful with goals scored, as sometimes, the scoring ruling is changed after the game and you may inadvertently buy shares of a player who really did nothing the entire game.

Other times, I simply get on line around 11:30pm and visit and check out the NHL and NBA scoreboards, or, if there have been NFL games, the NFL scoreboard as well.

I look for obvious buyable events, like:

Touchdowns scored (NFL). The more the merrier.

Goals scored (NHL). Ditto above.

Birdies, birdies, birdies (PGA)

Double Points estimates (NBA)

Goalie Shutouts (NHL)

Home runs (MLB)

I also like to look for injuries, as sometimes, a lesser player steps in and is able to outperform estimates that were based primarily on that player having been in a backup role the previous season.

As I previously stated, I try to make my purchases at a point in time just AS the reason to make the purchase occurs (Homerun, TD catch, TD run, 2nd TD pass by a QB, Goal scored).

RULE OF THUMB: I rarely invest in defensive players in football, unless they scored a TD or had more than one interception.

RULE OF THUMB: I never invest in goalies, unless they record a shutout.

RULE OF THUMB: I rarely invest in basketball players, unless they nearly doubled their points per game estimate.

Mutual Funds:
I only dapple, making sure to buy only funds with a concentration of steadily bonused players.

I take advantage of any transaction that results in a return of more than 2%. Even if it means the net profit is only $100 in terms of dollars. This $100 seems insignificant, but mathematics states otherwise (see my Rule of 72's). I make my related buys at 4:05pm EST, and make my sells at 4:35pm EST, making sure the transaction has been registered in my portfolio first.

I buy any IPO that people have been longing for, just in anticipation of the feeding frenzy that usually results. I buy it AS SOON as it is issued, so, at the very least, I will maximize the moo profits by the time my late night buying cycle begins. If the player is having a big night, or has a buyable event, I hold the IPO over night and sell in the morning with all the rest of my stocks. Otherwise, I sell him as soon as he passes the 2% milestone, thereby freeing up some cash to invest in more profitable stocks.

As my portfolio has grown, however, I have been known to make exceptions to my rules, and some of my buys have, on occasion, become questionable, at best.

My buying cycle is as follows:

  1. At night I check to see which players performed a "buyable event".
  2. I make a list of players who do so, being sure to include their estimates in key categories compared to their actual performance that day.
  3. I then prioritize my buys based on how many categorical estimates were beaten, and by what percentage. I ALWAYS choose "Buy Max" as my number of shares.
    • 10:00pm Eastern Time: No stock holdings in portfolio (I sold them all, keep reading).
    • Midnight: ALL(practically) cash on hand spent.
    • 9:00am EST: Confirm that Boni are awarded, SELL ALL HOLDINGS!
    • 4.3:05pm EST: Check WSS Transactions page. Do Mutual Fund calculations; buy (or sell) appropriately.

Note that as my portfolio got larger, I may have had some mutual funds in it; those would not be day-traded, unless there was a scheduled transaction THAT day (as described in Step 4).

 
The Investments
    Stocks
    Mutual Funds
    Estimates
    Boni

Tricky Stuff
    Transactions
    Splits
    IPO's

About Guesser
    Guesser Who?
    My Strategy
    My Mistakes

Guesser's Insights
    Sponge-worthy
    Myths
    Myth-teries
    Rule of 72's

Guesser's Port $
November 2000
December 2000
January 2001
February 2001
March 2001
April 2001
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"Most of all, just have fun!"
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